Subhi Agrawal
Polling throughout the 2024 election cycle indicates that Republicans are set to perform remarkably well with African American voters. Even with Kamala Harris leading the Democratic ticket, over one in five Black voters express support for Donald Trump. Younger Black voters, in particular, seem more inclined to vote for the Republican party.
Black voters constitute nearly a quarter
This shift appears to represent a significant change in American voting patterns. The last time Republicans saw similar support from Black voters was in 1976. Since Black voters currently constitute nearly a quarter of the Democratic base, losing over 20% of this group would be a severe blow to Vice President Harris’s electoral chances. Even if these polls accurately reflect current Black voter sentiment, they are unlikely to predict the final vote distribution come November.
To explain why the polls might not accurately capture the eventual voting patterns of this particular demographic, it’s useful to compare it to how third-party candidates typically perform.
When a large number of voters were unhappy
In the 2016 electoral cycle, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson consistently polled around 9%. As the election drew closer, voters began defecting to one of the top ticket candidates. Even in the final week before the election, he was still polling above 6%, but he ultimately received just over 3% of the vote.
Even though many Americans frequently express a desire for alternatives to the Democratic and Republican nominees, third-party candidates consistently receive fewer votes than their polling numbers suggest like in 2016, when a large number of voters were unhappy with both major party options.
Black voters could be easily moved to vote for someone other
Although nearly one in five Black Americans are open to voting for Trump, most Black voters could be easily moved to vote for someone other than who they’re leaning toward at the moment. Most of them have weaker commitments to their current candidate and roughly a third say they will probably not vote at all.
Unfortunately for Trump, there are indications that African American turnout might be significantly lower this cycle, particularly among lower-propensity voters. As a result, the vote share Republicans ultimately receive from Black voters in 2024 could end up being much lower than what the polls currently suggest. However, the bad news for candidates is that Trump doesn’t need to secure around 20% of the Black vote to jeopardize Kamala Harris’s chances of winning the White House.
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